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Energy system models have become essential tools for informing energy and climate policy, enabling the exploration of energy transition pathways. Yet applying these models to inform national policy is not straightforward. It involves complex modelling frameworks with imperfect data and careful management of diverse stakeholder expectations.

This seminar explores Portugal's experience using energy system modelling to support energy and climate policymaking. It covers the methodologies and models employed, stakeholder engagement, scenario development, and the role of modelling assumptions. Particular attention is given to the interactions between modelers, stakeholders, and policymakers, as well as to the opportunities, tensions and challenges that emerge throughout the process. Drawing on practical experience from two key policy documents, Portugal's Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality 2050 and the National Energy and Climate Plan 2030, it reflects on the contributions and limitations of energy system modelling in supporting real-world policy decisions.

Patrícia Fortes is a researcher at LNEG, Portugal's National Laboratory of Energy and Geology, and an invited researcher at NOVA University Lisbon (School of Science and Technology). With over 15 years of experience in energy systems and economic modelling, her research focuses on energy transition pathways, decarbonisation strategies, emerging energy carriers, and the impacts of climate change on energy systems. She has extensive experience supporting energy and climate policymaking, having coordinated the energy and industrial decarbonisation scenarios for Portugal's Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality 2050 and contributed to the development of the National Energy and Climate Plan 2030.